Too much of a good thing?

Fairfax County is trying to retain its quality of life in face of explosive growth

by Joan Hennessy
for Virginia Business
January 2007

Lisa Dezzutti's market research company, Market Connections Inc., caters to IT services clients, so in many ways its location near Washington Dulles International Airport in Fairfax County is ideal.

As one of the country's leading technology hubs, Fairfax is home to 4,800 tech companies. And it's just minutes away from Washington, D.C., the source of billions of dollars in federal contracts. "The location is so central to us in terms of our client base," says Dezzutti.

During the past two decades, commercial growth has transformed Fairfax County from a bedroom community into the state's economic powerhouse. It has more jobs, people and money than any other county in Virginia. Yet there is a downside to Fairfax's enviable demographics.

Dezzutti's office rent is higher than it would be in Manassas, but she doesn't want to be that far away from clients. Meanwhile, her employees are moving farther out to places such as Leesburg, because that's where they can afford to buy a home.

Hiring is more difficult, too, because of Northern Virginia's worsening traffic congestion. "If someone submits a resume from Maryland - Bethesda, Rockville or further out - I wonder if they are going to be able to make that commute in the long run," says Dezzutti. "I don't disregard the resume because of that. But it is something I think about."
Growth - the good and the bad - dominates the agenda of Fairfax business leaders and county residents. It dictates what time they leave for work and what routes they travel.

Fairfax has more than 29,000 businesses, which provide 564,000 jobs. In the first three quarters of 2006, companies announced plans to add an additional 15,000 jobs, mostly in the information technology and professional services fields. "This is the state's economic engine, without question," says Bill Lecos, president and CEO of the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce.

More growth is on the way. The county's southern end, an already crowded area, is bracing for the transfer of 22,000 jobs to Fort Belvoir as the Pentagon reshuffles personnel on military bases nationwide. To the north, plans are under way to expand Tysons Corner - the nation's 14th largest office market.

Incorporating new massive projects into an already fragile balance between healthy growth and runaway sprawl is a front-burner issue for Fairfax. The county's strategic location, well-educated work force and commercial office market sparks growth. But how much is too much?

The county's population is an estimated 1.06 million - up nearly 23 percent since 1990. In the next 20 years, that figure is expected to inch up to 1.2 million. Judging from a recent survey, some residents wonder if the county will be able to sustain its quality of life. In a chamber-sponsored survey of 1,820 likely Fairfax County voters, two-thirds of the respondents believed the pace of growth was either "much too fast" or "a little too fast." Another two-thirds said the county needs more access to mass transit; 76 percent said they need more affordable housing.

Local leaders acknowledge that Fairfax County's traffic congestion is caused in part by workers searching for less expensive homes. They wind up living many miles away and commuting to jobs in the county. Even though the price of homes has fallen in recent months, many families still can't afford to live in Fairfax County. In fall 2006, the average price of a single-family home in the county was $535,423, compared with a statewide average of $272,813.

Like housing, office rents are higher with a close-in Fairfax location. At Tysons Corner, for example, new lease rates are $37 to $40 per square foot, whereas some Prince William County offices routinely advertise rents of $23 or $25 per square foot.

The jobs magnet
People will continue to come, officials say, because they know they can find jobs. "We still drive off the federal government," says Gerald L. Gordon, president and CEO of the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority. "So when things like 9/11 occur or the war in Iraq, our businesses do well."

A downturn in one sector of the economy can be absorbed, he adds. "We're somewhat immune from recession in that regard. Four years or five years ago, the telecom industry fell apart. Homeland security propped us up. Federal contracting propped us up. … If something falters, something else picks us up."

Besides jobs, the county boasts a highly ranked educational system. In 2005, 93 percent of the county's high school graduates went on to some form of post-secondary education. "Why wouldn't people come here?" asks Lecos. "You've got a great school system, which makes it a wonderful choice for families …" In addition, he adds, "You've got terrific green space and recreational amenities both within the county. Ten percent of our land is owned by the park authority."

Indeed, the county's profile shines by most measures. Yet, business leaders recognize that the reassignment of 22,000 workers to Fort Belvoir - scheduled to take effect in 2011 - will present a challenge, because of the large influx of people.

The number of workers at the 8,656-acre Army base will roughly double. Most of newcomers, 18,000, will go to the Engineer Proving Ground, once used by the Army Corps of Engineers for mine, vehicle and equipment testing, says Don Dees, a Fort Belvoir spokesman. The 800-acre proving ground is situated off Interstate 95 and Rolling Road, south of Springfield and not far from the interchange of interstates 495, 395 and 95.

Commonly known as "the mixing bowl," this gigantic cloverleaf is traveled by more than 400,000 vehicles a day. Because of the traffic and the Pentagon's plans to move so many of the workers to the proving ground, plans were nixed for a national Army museum at this site. Instead, it will be built at Fort Belvoir's main Army post.

Another 4,000 workers are headed for the southern part of the base. The realignment could be an opportunity for the region, says George O'Quinn, president of Dominion Surveyors Inc., a business off Route 1 in the Mount Vernon area. "Any time you have growth, you have an increase in demand for services. By and large the business community embraces it."
On the other hand, he worries about the ripple effects. "How are we going to deal with the impact on our services, transportation and infrastructure? And how are we going to protect our rich heritage resources?"

One example, notes O'Quinn, is the nearby George Washington Parkway, the scenic road that snakes alongside the Potomac River, ending at the Mount Vernon estate. Shaded by parkland trees, the portion of the parkway south of Alexandria has a moderate flow of traffic. O'Quinn questions how that will change as the number of commuters grows. "We don't want the parkway to become a commuter line."

State officials worry, too. The Army has outlined about $600 million in highway improvements in the area. About $200 million of that total will be funded with Virginia transportation dollars. However, "we do not believe that the currently planned transportation improvements are adequate to serve the site," says Pierce Homer, Virginia's secretary of transportation. "We need to do a better job on providing transit alternatives." That means ride sharing, he adds, and, perhaps more importantly, smarter land-use choices.

While officials grapple with a transportation solution for the south end of Fairfax County, plans for the Dulles Corridor Metrorail plod along in the north. The project has been delayed by disagreements over whether the Tysons Corner route should be above or below ground.

State officials have made plans for an elevated track, but a group of citizens and business leaders says it will not stop fighting for a tunnel, which requires approval from the Federal Transit Administration. The tunnel debate has pushed back construction a year.

Scott Monett, owner of high-tech communications firm Monettech, says building the extension above ground would be a mistake. For one thing, he says rail construction will snarl traffic more. "You have to relocate utilities along the route … You are talking about a major potential for delay."

Everyone agrees, though, that the 23-mile, $4 billion commuter rail extension through Tysons Corner and Reston to Washington Dulles International Airport is desperately needed to take cars off the area's congested roads.

Rethinking the future
Rail is only one part of the solution to the area's traffic. Developers, real estate agents and business leaders all say the county needs more mixed-use developments, which would give residents more housing options. "We have to look at the county and say, 'This is where we could put affordable housing,'" says Jane A. Quill, a commercial broker with RE/MAX Presidential and board member for the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. "Workers are needed to have a viable economy."

Giving people the option to live closer to work is a key consideration for Mark C. Lowham, senior vice president of WestGroup, a developer of Tysons Corner. In the past, WestGroup was primarily a commercial development firm. The future, says Lowham, will be different. "There are 115,000 people working in Tysons and about 14,000 residential units. There's some catching up to do."

In the meantime, the California-based owner of Tysons Corner Center, the Macerich Co., plans a mammoth addition. The project would span 10 to 15 years and add 3.5 million square feet to Tysons' existing 22 million square feet of space.

The plan calls for high-rise offices - a hotel, residences and shops in buildings that could be as high as 30 stories.

The project's timing is important, with county officials plotting Tysons' future with a new master plan. Some residents think the county's board of supervisors should hold off on this month's scheduled vote on Macerich's project until the new master plan is finished.

That seems to be the way things go in Fairfax these days: always running to catch up with the growth.