Miles apart
Will election year politics continue the deadlock or force the General Assembly to move on transportation?

by Jessica Sabbath
for Virginia Business
January 2007

During the holiday shopping season, employees at the Northern Virginia office of Korn/Ferry International used to stay at work until 7 p.m. just to avoid heavy traffic. "We were a quarter of a mile or less from Tysons 2. It was unbelievable," says Lorraine Lavet, managing director of the Northern Virginia office. "It would often take 15 minutes to make a right turn out of the parking lot."

The traffic-choked roads caused the firm to relocate to an office in Reston in December 2005. At its new site, the executive recruitment firm is able to move clients and job applicants in and out more easily, a welcome change from Tysons Corner. "People would hesitate when they would schedule times to come in," recalls Lavet. "They'd say, 'I'd rather come when the traffic is not so heavy.' "

Such is life in Virginia's economic juggernaut, where traffic patterns dictate the business day - and often how much time employees spend at home. But commuters there and on busy highways throughout the state may not get help again this year if disagreeing factions of the General Assembly continue their standoff on transportation funding. Last year, the transportation battle led to an extended 246-day session - which cost taxpayers nearly $250,000 - and barely averted a government shutdown.

The stalemate in this legislative game of chess is expected to continue when the 2007 assembly session begins Jan. 10. So far, both sides are sticking adamantly to their principles and even disagree whether pushing for a transportation overhaul this session is worthwhile during a short session in an election year when political stakes are high. (Virginia's constitution calls for a 30-day session in odd years although legislators typically have extended short periods to 45 days, compared with 60-day sessions in even years.)

Movement is likely on the allocation of at least $500 million to $600 million to one-time transportation projects and continued reform of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) and land-use decisions. But the debate on road funding appears to be stuck.

The longstanding impasse on one of the state's most pressing issues leaves some legislators and Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine hopeful that the electorate may help break the deadlock in the fall if compromise can't be worked out this year, when all 140 seats in the House of Delegates and state Senate are up for election. "I want to make sure that we have problem solvers in the legislative bodies who are willing to address the big issues of Virginia, including transportation," says Kaine.

Conservatives vs. centrists
At odds is the House, dominated by the conservative wing of the state Republican Party, and the centrist Senate, led by moderates of the state GOP. The primary issue is funding for new roads, where anti-tax House delegates oppose any tax or fee increase, and most senators contend new revenue is necessary to fix the state's aging transportation network.

While the standoff continues, thousands of new commuters pour onto Virginia's roads each year. The state's transportation network last received a major fiscal boost during the 1986 special session of the General Assembly. Bob Chase, president of the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance, says the need in Northern Virginia for a transportation fix is dire. "If you look at [Interstates] 95 and 66 in the morning, that's a huge portion of Northern Virginia's economy just sitting on roadways," says Chase. "Not only people who work in offices, but your plumbers, your law services, your roofers. Every aspect of business that makes the economy function is impacted daily by congestion."

Although most acute in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, transportation problems are widespread around the state, particularly truck safety concerns and congestion on Interstate 81 in the Shenandoah Valley and Route 58 in southern Virginia.

During a recent trade mission to Europe, Kaine says, international business executives praised the state's No. 1 ranking by Forbes.com as a place to do business, but showed concern about its aging infrastructure. "It's a big need," says Kaine. "It's recognized not just within the state, but outside the state, as the challenge we have to solve."

House leaders argue that taxpayers won't stand for another hit after a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004. Plus, they say new taxes can't be justified during repeated years of surpluses and with a budget that's grown 19 percent in two years. "I think the people want us to look within our budget and say, 'Fellows and ladies, you need to take a look at how you're going to do it within your existing means,'" says Speaker of the House William J. Howell, R-Stafford.

House proposals
Howell says the House will introduce a mix of new and old transportation proposals this year. During September's special session, the House introduced a $2.4 billion plan that included a voter referendum to fund transportation with bonds and diverted $300 million from the general fund.

The House also wants to continue reforming VDOT and efforts to tie land-use decisions to transportation considerations. Howell has proposed dedicating at least half of the projected $550 million surplus for transportation. It will push forward on transportation woes this session, says Howell, despite the upcoming elections. "We're the ones coming up with innovative new ideas," he says. "[During the special session] zero were introduced by the governor, zero were introduced by the Senate. You're not going to fix transportation if you don't have any legislation to deal with it."

The House also wants to give localities more responsibility for maintaining their roads. "Every year we have 150 to 200 new miles of subdivision streets that the state has responsibility of taking care of, but there's no accountability of local government to take any of that responsibility," he says.

Allied with Kaine on the need for new revenue through new taxes and fees, most senators blame the funding impasse on House Republican leadership for refusing to budge from its anti-tax stance. During last year's regular session, senators passed a plan that would have raised almost $1 billion annually through gas, real estate transactions and sales taxes, and an increase in some fees.

Senators characterize the House transportation proposals as irresponsible, because they would divert money from the general fund and use long-term debt to raise money. They say a consistent new revenue stream is needed to fix aging roads. "Our economy is up and it's down. … When it's down about every 10 years and it stays down for two or three years that is not conducive for a long-term transportation solution because you pit education, public safety, and health and human services against it," says Senate Finance Committee Chairman John H. Chichester, R-Northumberland.

Little can be accomplished during an election year, predict some senators, when House Republicans are as unlikely as ever to vote for a tax increase. "Nothing was done over 240 days last year. I don't know what's going to occur in 30," says Chichester.

Senate Transportation Committee Chairman Martin E. Williams, R-Newport News, originally thought an election year would prevent any chance of compromise on transportation, but now thinks the elections may mean the GOP must strike a deal. "I do think there's going to be added pressure," says Williams. "It's no longer going to be OK to go home to people and say, 'We tried.'"

Longstanding rift
If anyone blinks, Kaine says he's leaving the door open. In addition to proposing that about $500 million go to one-time transportation projects, he might even hedge his bets and reintroduce some or all of the $1 billion transportation proposal he submitted last year. "I've got the Senate Democrats and [Senate] Republicans, and House Democrats. We're all ready to go if the House will get serious about it," he says.

The fissure in the state GOP has been ongoing since the 1998-2002 term of former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore, when Senate Republicans supported a freeze on the phase-out of the car tax as state revenues suffered. "The House disagreed," says Stephen Farnsworth, associate professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington. "And so within just a few years of achieving a majority in the House and the Senate, the Republicans started attacking each other, and they haven't stopped since."

In 2004, Senate Republicans joined Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner in passing the $1.4 billion tax increase for education, police and social services. Now the intra-party fighting has turned to transportation funding.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, says the impasse stems from two factions of the state Republican Party that have ideological differences about the role of government, taxes and spending. The state Senate tends to be made up of moderate Republicans, he says, because of their larger constituencies.

Since incumbents generally draw redistricting lines to safeguard their seats, the most extreme wings of each party typically win the primaries. "The most conservative Republican and the most liberal Democrat are usually the ones who win primary contests," says Farnsworth. "And so the people in the House - and there are dozens of them - who vow never to raise taxes can never agree with the Republican Senate plan to raise taxes for transportation. … So every member looking out for their own best interests creates gridlock on transportation."

Virginia's battle lines not only fall between the legislature's two houses, but also among Virginia's diverse regions. "There is a sense in certain corridors, and I completely understand this, of 'Why should I pay more for gasoline or more when I buy my car when all of the extra money is going to go to Tidewater and Northern Virginia?'" says Chichester. "But Northern Virginia and Tidewater are the engines that are moving the economy in Virginia."

Del. Vincent F. Callahan Jr., R-McLean, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, says delegates from the rest of the state need to realize the importance of keeping Northern Virginia's economy strong. "Without us, Virginia would have no prosperity," says Callahan. "If we don't prosper, the state doesn't prosper."

The clogged arteries of Hampton Roads threaten business growth, especially with the port expected to double container traffic in the next few years. Williams of Newport News says congestion in Hampton Roads has hampered economic development efforts when competing with North Carolina. "It's sort of being used against us as a sledgehammer in economic development," says Williams. "We don't have all the high-paying jobs Northern Virginia has."

Attempts at team thinking
Virginians need to think more like a team, says Kaine. Regions should understand that the success of other areas benefits the state as a whole. "The fate of the Port of Virginia, for example, is not just a regional issue for Hampton Roads. The distribution centers that have been created by this vibrant port operation are all over Virginia from the inland port up in Front Royal to distribution centers down on Route 58 in Southside."

Del. David B. Albo, R-Fairfax, has tried for years to persuade other districts in Virginia to give up road money to help alleviate congestion in Northern Virginia, to no avail. In response, he and Del. Thomas Rust, R-Fairfax, are introducing a bill this year that would raise taxes and fees in Northern Virginia for its regional transportation authority. "What the opponents of the measure say is that there's enough money in the budget to build roads, and I agree with them, but southern Virginia will never vote to give up their piece of the pie," says Albo. "I've just gotten to the point where I'm totally frustrated, I'm totally angry, but I've got to do something. I've got to build some roads."

The Albo-Rust plan would raise about $400 million of new revenue each year through real estate, hotel and rental car taxes, a commercial and industrial real estate tax, and an additional fee for new driver's licenses. Money would be collected just in Northern Virginia, with the "non-negotiable" requirement that all money would stay in the region.

"That way everyone pays," says Albo. "The newcomers pay, the tourists pay, the businesses pay and people who buy a home pay."

A similar bill died in the House Finance Committee during the special session and failed in the Appropriations Committee during the regular session. Although the delegates realize lining up votes in the Finance Committee won't be easy, they contend the business community and House floor support the measure. Hampton Roads delegates also are considering a bill to fund a regional authority.

Changing political landscape
Republican losses in the 2005 gubernatorial election and the 2006 U.S. Senate race may give clout to Albo and Rust's cause. "The transportation problem is getting worse at least in Northern Virginia every day," says Rust. "I think the [recent] elections showed that people said the current path that we were going down was generally not the one we wanted to continue on."

Populous Northern Virginia played a decisive role in the past two elections, helping to push Democrats Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb over the top. As the region's population grows, the Republican Party will have to adjust to be successful in Washington's suburbs. "Looking at the dramatic changes in Northern Virginia, it's not going to be easy for most Republicans who are conservative to run in 2007," says Sabato. "Some of them will win, but some of them are going to have a mountain to climb."

He predicts a scenario that would go something like this: "The House Republicans are going to center their campaigns around a very central question: 'Do you want your taxes raised?'" says Sabato. "The Senate Republicans will say, 'Do you want responsible government in the Virginia tradition?' Democrats are going to say, 'Don't you want to break the deadlock and get something done?' We'll see which question is answered in the affirmative."

Farnsworth of Mary Washington acknowledges that Northern Virginia's increasing population will mean the area gains more delegate seats after the 2010 Census, and most of those new seats will likely be Democratic.

If the legislature continues to sit on transportation, the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance will likely weigh in. "I think the business community is more determined than ever to push on transportation in the 2007 session, and if we don't get results there, then I guess the next opportunity is the 2007 elections," says Chase.

Yet Farnsworth doubts an influx of new representatives is likely because of the craftily drawn districts. "As long as we have a system in Virginia where decisions are made by elected officials on how these lines are drawn, this will be an incumbent-driven system that helps incumbents in both parties," he says.

Kaine's keeping mum on who he will target during the 2007 elections, but promises to be active. "You don't have to change a lot of people to have a fairly significant shift," says Kaine. "And there will be changes. There will be retirees. There will be new people coming on board. Since Virginians continue to ask about transportation, I think those who will be running races will be asked a lot about transportation."

Kaine certainly is. Thirty to 40 percent of the calls to his monthly radio shows are about transportation, he says. The governor is counting on pressure from citizens and businesses to help break the impasse. "The business community has said this is really important. To the degree that they promote it and say that it's important and want to find people to help them solve the problem, then that will dramatically increase the odds that it will."

Perhaps it will take some new chess players - or at least some new moves - to break the stalemate. Virginians are tired of sitting in traffic, and most commuters could care less about which side gets to announce "checkmate."