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Return to Virginia Business - July 2001

Telecommunications
Wireless: the next stage
Handheld devices proliferate, but the crash is holding them back

by Robert Burke

Palm m505There’s hardly an hour in the day when Gurvinder Batra can be without his Palm Pilot. Batra is the chief technology officer of Techbooks, a Fairfax-based Internet publishing company with offices in London, California and New Delhi. As one division finishes its day in one part of the globe, another wakes up to face the morning’s problems. "I have to be available for people no matter what time of day, " he says.

Billions of dollars are riding on hopes that the rest of us will one day find the wireless Internet as indispensable as Batra does. Tech-sector companies are scrambling to be ready for the long-expected day when consumer enthusiasm explodes for all things wireless. New devices crowd the market — cell phones with e-mail capabilities that also browse the Web, handheld organizers that double as phones, watches that handle e-mail. "I think these things help simplify how we do things," Batra says.

Yet, inside the wireless sector nothing seems simple. The high-tech debacle has erased lots of venture capital funding, and uncertainty abounds over how the industry’s ongoing evolution will play out. Much of what exists today will be replaced by better devices and faster networks tomorrow. Snagging most of the attention is the long-awaited "third-generation" transmission capability, known as 3G which will allow more data but require a new generation of hardware and software.

Nextel's i85 Java phoneFor some Virginia-based companies, the more changes, the better. McLean-based LCC International helps clients like Nextel Communications, Verizon Wireless and others navigate the changing network technologies. "Devices are one thing but what makes those devices effective are the networks they work on," says LCC’s Vice President of Corporate Communications Tricia Drennan. "Anytime there’s a change to the network, there’s a need for our services." And these days, she adds, "Everything changes the network, which is sort of the beauty of the business."

But the biggest beast is a lack of investment capital. Financial markets are very cautious with wireless investments while they recoup from the telecom sector’s collapse, Drennan says. In the Washington region, overall venture funding in the first quarter dropped by a third to $594 million, according to the Mid-Atlantic Venture Association. That has hurt her company, but it is still hiring engineers. "We believe that next year, once the financial markets come back and 3G hits, that we’re not going to be able to satisfy demand."

The need for more capacity in wireless systems is attracting companies that worked in the broadband telecom industry. In late May Advanced Switching Communications, a Vienna telecom equipment maker, announced plans to produce equipment and software to boost data capacity of wireless networks. ASC is banking that wireless carriers will need more of everything — cell towers, base stations, network capacity and data services. Wireless carriers are considered good customers — ASC vice president Larry Kraft calls them the fastest-growing segment of the communications industry. Spending on wireless Internet infrastructure hit $10 billion last year and is expected to hit $20 billion in 2003, according to the Strategis Group, an industry research firm in Washington.

Some Virginia-based carriers, though, aren’t in great shape. Nextel Communications in Reston, the nation’s fifth-largest wireless carrier, saw its stock drop to around $15 a share in early June from a 52-week high of $72 last July. After missing first-quarter expectations on growth, it laid off 850 workers and announced in May that it raised $1 billion in the convertible debt market. The company has spent billions building its network, aimed at high-end business customers.

Motient Corp., a two-way wireless network provider in Reston, is struggling as well. Its stock peaked a year ago at just over $16 but today is about $1. Motient is trying to avoid a cash shortage by buying Rare Medium Group, a software design company, for $200 million in cash and stock. If the acquisition flies, Motient will gain access to Rare Medium’s cash assets and be funded into the first half of 2002, Motient President and CEO Walter Purnell Jr. said in a statement announcing the move. The new company would keep its Reston headquarters and double its work force to almost 1,000 people.

Finding the right partner is crucial to the survival of Alexandria-based Metrocall. The company is buried in debt from purchasing smaller paging companies in recent years. Its stock, valued at $9 a year ago, is worth only pennies today. A planned merger with Dallas-based WebLink Wireless was canceled in mid-May after layoffs and office closings at WebLink. Still, Metrocall needs WebLink’s two-way network, and the merger will likely be renegotiated under new terms. Michael Scanlan, Metrocall’s senior vice president for marketing and communications, says the company will restructure its bond debt as well. "We’re participating in the final consolidation of an industry and it’s not always pretty," he says. "Those who emerge through the dust tend to do well."

Handspring Visor PrismThe gamble that companies make on wireless is more remarkable given the problems wireless has had getting established in the U.S., Asia and Europe are far ahead in market penetration of wireless usage. The U.S. has an even ratio of wireless and fixed-wire subscribers while in Europe the ratio is nearly 3-to-1, according to the Strategis Group. The U.S. also lags in preparation for 3G — Japan, Korea and five countries in Europe have already issued 3G spectrum licenses. The U.S. won’t auction spectrum licenses until September 2002. "The U.S. is still kind of struggling to find its way," says Elliot Hamilton, Strategis Group senior vice president. "There haven’t been a lot of bright spots."

Maybe the only bright spot is the continuing evidence of consumer demand. The number of wireless phone subscribers in Virginia soared 32 percent last year, according to the FCC. The nationwide increase was 27 percent. An industry report by the Gartner Group predicts a 19-fold increase in the number of wireless data users in the North American market by 2005, driven mostly by the demand for a more productive mobile worker. And, while the financial markets are still skittish, when they do come up with money, telecom companies usually get their share. Even in the dismal first quarter of this year the telecom sector got $3.2 billion in venture funding nationwide, the most of any industry. "If you look at the wireless market I think there’s some hope out there," Hamilton says.

There are other signs of life as well. The much-awaited 3G service is a reality in Japan. In May mobile carrier NTT DoCoMo launched a trial run of 3G services for 3,300 users; it plans to expand the service to the rest of Japan in 2002 and in the U.S. soon after through its alliance with AT&T Wireless. Others aren’t waiting for 3G. In Europe, Finland’s Nokia — the world’s largest mobile-phone maker with a 35 percent market share — says it will begin selling phones known as "2.5-generation" in Europe this fall. The industry hopes these high-speed phones, with constant Web connections, will spark some consumer interest even before 3G technology arrives.

The growth can’t come too soon for some. Mobile phone maker Ericsson of Sweden is losing money and laying off workers, as are several other telecom-equipment makers. U.S. phone maker Motorola posted its first quarterly operating loss in 15 years in April. If the wireless Web is a certainty as so many predict, perhaps the only mystery is which companies will still be around to witness it.

Return to Virginia Business - July 2001

 

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